教育行业政策周期性明显，一级市场投资分化加剧

The policy periodicity of education industry is obvious, and the differentiation of primary market investment is intensified

政策周期。教育行业政策具有明显的周期性，教育相关法规和政策的更新围绕民生呈现不规则钟摆，近 10 年政策监管趋严格，教育市场趋于规范化。政策目标要求教育符合“普惠” 和“公平” 的民生属性，但教育是提升国家人力资源竞争力的主要路径，具有选拔目的，因而基于人才选拔的升学竞争必然会发生在某一个教育阶段。

Policy cycle. The education industry policies has obvious periodicity. The update of education-related regulations and policies has shown an irregular pendulum around people's livelihood. In the past 10 years, policy supervision has become stricter and the education market has become more standardized. The aim of the policies is to ensure that education to conform to the "inclusion" and "fairness" attributes of people's livelihood, but education is the main way to enhance the country's human resource competitiveness and has a selection purpose. Therefore, competition for higher education based on talent selection will inevitably occur at a certain stage of education.

产业周期资金投向更是两级分化严重。教与学的场景正从校内转向校外，新的流量平台加速改变传统意义上的教与学的角色，不同赛道的潜在消费人群对于教育产品的需求差别很大。满足日益分层的学习需求是社会的难题，无序的教育资源供给则会导致教育行业乱象丛生。自上而下的监管与自下而上的教育事业产业化不可避免地产生摩擦。

The investment direction of capital in the industry cycle is even more polarized. The scene of teaching and learning is shifting from inside the school to outside the school. The new traffic platform is accelerating the change of the traditional role of teaching and learning. The potential consumer groups of different tracks have very different demands for education products. Meeting the increasingly stratified learning needs is a social problem, and disorderly supply of education resources will lead to chaos in the education industry. The top-down supervision and the bottom-up industrialization of education inevitably produce friction.

资本周期。教育作为近几年热度较高的行业之一，的确吸引了一波资本的眼球。但资本催熟的项目难以“修成正果”，大量投资多是在给行业“交学费” 。热钱本身具有时间成本，且杠杆资金的来源受到国家金融政策调控影响，近年投资明显大幅缩水。

Capital cycle. Education, as one of the most popular industries in recent years, has indeed attracted a wave of capital's attention. However, it is difficult to "build a positive result" for capital-maturing projects, and most of the large investment is to "pay tuition" to the industry. Hot money has a time cost, and the source of leveraged funds is affected by national financial policy regulation. In recent years, investment has shrunk significantly.

教育行业一级市场的投融资数量在三种周期叠加和疫情的催化下创五年来新低，资金投向更是两级分化严重。一方面，大量资金向头部企业聚拢，百分之九十以上的资金投向各赛道头部企业。伴随头部企业获得更多资本加持，中小型企业将面临更加激烈的竞争环境，更难脱颖而出。另一方面，早期阶段的投融资数量占总投融资数量的近百分之七十。虽然教育行业早期投融资数量占比较多，但总的也不过 100+ 起，相较于数十万的教培机构来说也只是杯水车薪。

The amount of investment and financing in the primary market of the education industry hit a five-year low under the superposition of the three cycles and the catalysis of the epidemic, and the direction of capital investment is even more polarized. On the one hand, a large amount of funds are gathered in leading companies, and more than 90% of the funds are invested in leading companies on the track. As leading companies obtain more capital blessings, small and medium-sized enterprises will face a more intense competitive environment, and it will be more difficult for them to stand out. On the other hand, the number of investment and financing in the early stage accounted for nearly 70% of the total number of investment and financing. Although the number of early investment and financing in the education industry is relatively large, the total number is only 100+, which is only a drop in the bucket compared to hundreds of thousands of education and training institutions.

疫情、政策双重作用，利好在线教育、高教职教、教育信息化

The dual role of epidemic situation and policy is conducive to online education, higher vocational education and education informatization

K12 及素质教育政策方面：教育部下发通知，要求 2020 年春季延期开学，并发出“停课不停学”的号召，全国中小学生开启网课生活。疫情导致教育消费习惯发生变化，消费者更容易接受线上教学，在线教育的转化率和续班率都会更高。从消费者认知度、品牌角度方面，对在线教育行业是一次极大利好。上半年政策重点在疫情，下半年基本延续了保持强监管、重规范，同时有序鼓励的趋势，促进教育工作安全稳定发展。

K12 and Quality Education Policy: The Ministry of Education issued a notice requesting the postponement of the start of school in the spring of 2020, and issued a call for "no suspension of classes", and elementary and middle school students will start online classes. The epidemic has led to changes in education consumption habits, consumers are more likely to accept online teaching, and the conversion rate and renewal rate of online education will be higher. From the perspective of consumer awareness and brand, it is a great benefit to the online education industry. In the first half of the year, the policy focus was on the epidemic, and in the second half of the year, the trend of maintaining strong supervision, emphasizing standards, and encouraging orderly at the same time was basically continued to promote the safe and stable development of education.

高教职教政策方面：受政策利好，但就业形式严峻。突如其来的疫情导致就业形势不容乐观，而就业作为“六稳”、“六保”的首要和根本，“稳就业”是大局，“保就业”是底线。巩固职业教育产教融合，加强校企合作办学模式，深化职业教育供给侧结构性改革，推动信息技术与教育教学深度融合，高教职教政策不断深化。

Higher education and vocational education policy: The sudden epidemic has made the employment situation not optimistic. Employment is the primary and fundamental of the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees". "Stabilizing employment" is the overall situation, and "guaranteeing employment" is the bottom line. Consolidate the integration of production and education in vocational education, strengthen the school-enterprise cooperation model of running schools, deepen the structural reform of the supply side of vocational education, promote the deep integration of information technology and education and teaching, and constantly deepen the policies of higher education and vocational education.

国际教育政策方面：疫情的出现对全球政治经济产生了长远且不确定性的影响，反映在国际教育赛道是留学生的人生安全、签证合法性等诸多问题。各国相继出台了针对留学生出入境的相关政策，网课成为一段时间内的必然选择。同时，各国在移民、签证等方面也有了或趋紧或宽松的新动向。目前业内主流观点认为疫情彻底平息可能需要 3－5 年。而国际教育本身时间跨度长、行为周期较长，未来几年留学市场整体趋冷。

International education policy: The emergence of the epidemic has had a long-term and uncertain impact on global politics and economy, which is reflected in many issues such as the safety of international students and the legality of visas on the international education track. Many countries have successively introduced relevant policies for the entry and exit of foreign students, and online courses have become an inevitable choice for a period of time. At the same time, there are new trends in immigration and visas. The current mainstream opinion in the industry believes that it may take 3-5 years for the epidemic to cease completely. However, international education has a long time span and a long behavioral cycle, and the overall study abroad market will become colder in the next few years.

教育信息化政策方面：疫情暴露出老师、学生群体对在线教育技术手段应用不熟练等问题，这些问题进一步强化了国家对职业教育和教育信息化领域的投入，以及相关的利好政策的出台。当前教育信息化进校仍存在互动性不强和留存率不高的问题，这个痛点仍未得到实质解决。

Education informatization policy: The epidemic has exposed problems of teachers and student groups that are not proficient in the application of online educational technology. These problems have further strengthened the country's investment in the field of vocational education and education informatization, as well as the introduction of related favorable policies. At present, there are still problems of weak interaction and low retention rate in education informatization into schools, and this pain point has not yet been substantively resolved.